OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that the USD/SGD currency pair has rebounded following what they describe as a relief-driven, rather than a reversal, move lower. They emphasize that ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly between the US and Iran, and the potential for higher oil prices, could reignite concerns about inflation and economic growth, thereby maintaining upward pressure on USD/SGD [1].
The strategists note that while the Singapore Dollar (SGD) is expected to demonstrate relative resilience compared to other Asian currencies, it remains susceptible to a stronger US Dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and weaker regional risk sentiment. They highlight that the pair was last observed at 1.2765, with technical resistance at 1.2850 (200-day moving average and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and support at 1.2720 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 low to high) and 1.2680 [1].
Momentum and RSI indicators currently do not show a clear directional bias, suggesting that two-way trading is likely in the near term. However, the strategists maintain a bias towards selling rallies, indicating a cautious outlook despite the potential for upside risks if geopolitical tensions escalate further [1].
CONCLUSION
OCBC strategists highlight that while USD/SGD may experience two-way trading in the near term, upside risks persist due to fluid geopolitical developments and the potential for higher oil prices. The Singapore Dollar is expected to remain relatively resilient, but market participants should remain vigilant for any escalation that could drive the pair higher.