Oil prices experienced significant volatility, trading on either side of $100 per barrel, as markets reacted to conflicting signals regarding potential US-Iran ceasefire talks [1]. ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson reported that NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent rose approximately 2% following sharp price swings, reflecting heightened uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape [1]. The analysts noted that any credible de-escalation could trigger a renewed risk-on move, but for now, uncertainty remains elevated [1].
US crude inventories continued to build, with EIA data showing a 6.9 million barrel increase last week, marking the fifth consecutive weekly rise and significantly surpassing the 2.3 million barrel build reported by the API [1]. Total crude stocks reached 456.2 million barrels, the highest level since June 2024, while Cushing inventories surged by 3.4 million barrels to 30.9 million barrels, the largest weekly gain since January 2023 [1]. Crude imports fell to 6.5 million barrels per day, and exports dropped sharply to 3.3 million barrels per day, the lowest since November 2025 [1].
Product balances were mixed: gasoline inventories declined by 2.6 million barrels, slightly more than expected, while distillate stocks unexpectedly rose by 3 million barrels [1]. Refinery utilization increased by 1.5 percentage points week-on-week to a robust 92.9% [1].
Saudi Aramco is reportedly set to supply around 40 million barrels of crude to China in April, while deliveries to India are expected to total roughly 23 million barrels, slightly below last month [1]. The decline in shipments reflects disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Aramco to reroute volumes via the Yanbu pipeline on the Red Sea, which has an export capacity of about 5 million barrels per day—well below pre-conflict Gulf shipment levels [1]. While rerouting offers partial relief, it does not fully offset lost capacity, pushing up costs for Asian importers and underscoring the conflict’s growing economic impact [1].
CONCLUSION
Oil markets remain highly volatile amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and rising US inventories. Disruptions in the Middle East are tightening seaborne crude flows to Asia, increasing costs for importers and sustaining elevated prices. The market is closely watching for credible de-escalation signals, which could shift sentiment and price direction.