President Donald Trump announced his readiness to deploy the U.S. Navy to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflict with Iran, which has resulted in attacks on ships and a near standstill of tanker traffic through the critical waterway [1]. U.S. oil prices surged 28% this week to above $86 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 22% to $89 a barrel, reflecting heightened market anxiety over supply disruptions [1]. Analysts warn that if the Strait remains closed for an extended period, Brent crude could surpass $100 per barrel, potentially tipping the global economy into recession [1].
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint, with more than 14 million barrels per day of crude passing through in 2025, accounting for about a third of all ship-exported oil worldwide, according to energy consulting firm Kpler [1]. Under normal conditions, approximately 100 tankers and cargo vessels transit the Strait daily, but currently, about 400 tankers are stranded in the Gulf due to the conflict [1]. Matt Wright, a senior freight analyst at Kpler, emphasized the logistical challenge, stating that it would take "an inordinate amount of time" for the U.S. Navy to escort even a few vessels at a time [1].
Trump's promise to provide political risk insurance and naval escorts temporarily calmed the oil market on Tuesday and Wednesday, but prices surged again Thursday following Iran's missile attack on a tanker and a reported explosion at a tanker in Iraqi waters by the British Navy [1]. Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets questioned whether there are enough Navy assets to both escort ships and continue operations against Iran, highlighting the operational strain [1]. Insurance is not the primary concern for ship owners; rather, physical security and a sustained period without attacks are necessary before tankers will resume transit, according to Wright at Kpler [1].
The urgency to restore oil flows is high, but confidence in diminished Iranian military capabilities is needed for ship owners to return to the Strait [1]. Rapidan Energy analysts noted that U.S. naval escorts may help marginally but are insufficient to reopen the Strait without a systematic degradation of Iran's military capabilities [1]. Houthi militants in Yemen previously disrupted Red Sea traffic, but their threat is considered less sophisticated compared to Iran's, according to Wright [1].
CONCLUSION
The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has caused a sharp surge in oil prices and stranded hundreds of tankers, with President Trump's promise of U.S. Navy escorts offering only temporary relief. Analysts and market participants remain concerned about the adequacy of military assets and the need for a sustained reduction in Iranian threats before oil flows can resume. The situation poses a significant risk to global energy markets and economic stability.