According to Nathan Janzen of Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), Canadian labour market conditions steadied in March 2024, with a modest employment gain of 14,000 jobs. This increase marked the first employment rise of the year, following a cumulative drop of 109,000 jobs over January and February [1]. The unemployment rate held at 6.7%, which is higher than the 6.5% rate in January but lower than the 6.8% level in December and the recent peak of 7.1% in September 2025 [1].
Janzen notes that the gradual decline in the unemployment rate since September has been tied as much to softer labour force growth as to stronger hiring. Over the past six months, Canada's labour force has declined by 39,000 workers, while employment has increased by 42,000 [1]. This labour force contraction is attributed to stalled population growth and aging demographics, rather than distortions such as discouraged workers exiting the job market [1].
RBC remains cautiously optimistic about the outlook, expecting per-person economic growth and labour conditions to gradually improve through 2026. However, Janzen cautions that the broader economic growth backdrop still faces headwinds [1].
CONCLUSION
Canada's labour market is showing signs of stabilization, with modest employment gains and a steady unemployment rate. While demographic trends are supporting a gradual decline in unemployment, RBC maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for gradual improvement through 2026, tempered by ongoing economic headwinds.